Act now or miss another chance at building an LNG industry, says TC Energy boss

Canada missed the first LNG export boom more than a decade ago, losing to the U.S., but it’s now getting a second chance as global demand rises and energy security concerns grow, according to TC Energy Corporation CEO François Poirier.

However, the window of opportunity is short, Poirier recently told the Canadian Club of Ottawa.

Governments, industry and First Nations need to pull together fast to ensure the country isn’t left watching from the sidelines again.

“Fifteen years ago, we were at the start line with the United States in the LNG game. Both of us had zero. If this were a hockey game, the score right now would be eight to one.”

“There were over 20 LNG applications filed in Canada to be permitted. We got one across the finish line,” Poirier said.

“But what’s amazing is that the opportunity has come back around to us. We’re forecasting about 45 bcf/d of natural gas demand growth in North America over the next decade.”

Current events are also working in Canada’s favour, he said.

LNG project timeline and ownership data is available within Geologic’s Evaluate Energy database. For further information, click here.

“The macro trends are aligning to our advantage because the world is looking for new trading partners, new alliances, and energy and transportation routes amid growing geopolitical risk.

“Geopolitical events have presented Canada with a generational opportunity. So, seize it.”

Germany, India and Japan have all expressed that they are hungry for Canada’s resources, he said. That urgency is only growing as energy supplies are disrupted around the world.

“I was at the largest global energy conference in the world last week [CERAWeek] in Houston and I met with Japanese LNG buyers, I met with investors from all over the world.

“They’re all looking at Canada because the path from the West Coast to Asian markets doesn’t go through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s identified as a vulnerability with 20 per cent of the energy flowing through that very narrow strait.”

Clear urgency

With its economy faltering, Canada can ill afford to miss this second chance, Poirier said.

“The urgency is clear. Canada’s long-term real GDP growth is projected at only one and a half per cent. At that pace, Canada risks settling into a low growth cycle with weak productivity, weak investment, and fewer jobs and opportunities.”

He added: “If Canada became the number one exporter of LNG to Asia, it would add $75 billion to our GDP each year.”

It would also create more market access and more diversification in trading partners, he said.

“And recent trade tensions highlight why Canada needs to diversify its markets and be more competitive.”

Poirier said the country needs to do three things to make this happen.

“First, to build more, Canada must quite simply make it easier to build.”

In 2021, the country had 320,000 regulations, up 30 per cent from 15 years earlier, he said.

While it’s encouraging the federal government has acknowledged the problem and created the Major Projects Office to cut through the red tape, he said, it now needs to “hardwire it into the broader economy with broader regulatory reform.

“In fact, that reform effort should in itself be treated as a project of national interest.”

The federal government also needs to speed the approval process and provide fixed timelines for approvals, he said.

And regulators need the courage to limit people who have standing to litigate to those who are actually directly impacted by a project, he added.

“Regulators are very fearful of litigation, and the trend has been to gold plate every single issue, whether it’s really relevant to a piece of infrastructure or not, for fear of having a permit taken away or a decision reversed.”

Thinking ‘bigger’

Canada also needs to think “bigger” on LNG development, Poirier said.

“For example, even if Canada builds everything that’s on the drawing board today it would be number five in the global LNG race.

“And while that sounds great, our true potential is to be the number one exporter of LNG to Asia. Yet the country’s behaving as if being good is good enough. Unacceptable.”

The country also must recognize it’s competing for capital globally, not just at home or in North America, he said.

Capital is attracted “by cultivating confidence through predictability and strong returns.”

Canada has been a massive net exporter of capital, he said. Over the last decade, the net foreign investment gap has widened from $100 billion to nearly a trillion dollars between 2014 and 2024.

“Think of capital as water flowing downhill. It follows the path of least resistance.”

Right now, that’s the United States, he said.

“It’s why in 2025 the U.S. sanctioned $56 billion of LNG-related projects. Canada made no sanctions in the same period.”

There is a need for speed in capturing the LNG opportunity, he said.

“In today’s environment, governments, businesses and Indigenous leaders need to align early, decide clearly, and execute decisively.”

Government needs to create an investment climate that is attractive to capital providers from a permitting, regulation, taxation, and labour availability standpoint, he said.

“I believe they’re making good, deliberate progress in all of those areas.”

Industry must also work to accelerate project development and raise the bar on its ambitions, Poirier said.

“It’s no longer sufficient to be faster than before. We need to be faster than the global competition.

“And businesses and Indigenous leaders need to collaborate much, much sooner in the development cycle to build alignment and shared economic prosperity and move at the pace dictated by global customers.”

Aligning on a vision

The country also needs to work on aligning on a vision.

Internal squabbles between the federal government, provinces and First Nations are destroying investor confidence, he said, citing a conversation with an LNG buyer from southeast Asia to prove his point.

The buyer was looking at Canada at the time the MOU between Alberta and the federal government was announced.

“A couple of premiers said ‘over my dead body.’ Then a bunch of First Nations who I know were being consulted privately and were very constructive also said this is a problem. We don’t want this in our backyard.

“What we need to understand is global investors don’t see the sausage making. They don’t understand the context as to why a policymaker and political leader might be speaking in a certain way. They just see what’s presented in front of them and the tone.”

This uncertainty has the world asking whether Canada can deliver, Poirier said.

“If we want Canada to compete and win in a time-bound global race for capital, we need to act differently starting now. That means shifting our mindset to measure success by projects built, by capital allocated [and] by GDP growth delivered for all Canadians.”

This article originally appeared in DOB Energy.