North America’s upstream oil and gas sector maintained its balance between capital investment and shareholder returns in Q1 2025 despite seeing less income, according to an Evaluate Energy analysis of 85 operators in the U.S. and Canada.Operating cash flow increased to $64.2 billion in Q1, up 7% from $59.8 billion in Q4 2024. New debt issued was flat at around $10 billion. Other sources of cash declined from Q4:Funds from M&A sales dropped to $6.4 billion from $13.4 billionNew shares issued declined from $3.9 billion to $1.3 billionThe result: Total sources of cash were $83.8 billion, down from $90.2 billion in the final quarter of 2024. With less money coming in, operators spent less and returned less to shareholders.“We’ve been closely monitoring the consequences of market volatility and cash availability, and where spending could be cut first, and most severely,” said Mark Young, Senior Analyst at Evaluate Energy. “Both capex and shareholder returns have seen cuts in pure dollar terms, although as a percentage of total cash outlay this change has been minimal so far.”CapexTotal $33.3 billion in Q1 – down $1 billion from the final quarter of 202440% of cash was used for capex in Q1, slightly up 38% in Q4 2024.Shareholder returns$28.9 billion in Q1 – down 6% from Q4 202434% of all cash was used on shareholder returns, unchanged from Q4 2024Share buybacks declined by almost 22% from $17.4 billion to $13.6 billionDividends increased from $13.4 billion to $15.3 billion“Proportionately, returns to shareholders have been maintained in Q1 driven by a sharp increase in dividend payments,” said Young. “The data strongly indicates that share buybacks rank behind capex and dividends as executives allocate capital during periods of lower income.”Debt repayments$10.9 billion in Q1 compared to $10.6 billion in Q4 2024Highest volume of debt repayment since Q4 2022, when $13.3 billion was retired13% of total spending in Q1 compared to 12% in Q4 2024Free cash flowFree cash flow was $30.9 billion in Q1, up from $25.5 billion in the final quarter of 2024 and $26 billion in the first quarter of 2024.* Author’s note: This analysis based on data from the Evaluate Energy Corporate Financial & Operating database. Cash flow data was extracted for 85 North American publicly-listed producers that all produced over 5,000 boe/d in Q1 from U.S. or Canadian assets.
