Thirty U.S. producers are expected to cushion revenue declines over the next six months through oil hedging, according to Evaluate Energy analysis. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) currently forecasts that WTI will fall to averages of $58 in Q4 2025, and $52 in Q1 2026 in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook. The group of 30 oil producers in this study have hedged a combined 800,000 bbls/d in both periods – around 35% of latest combined production levels – at prices higher than these EIA forecasts.While competitors without oil hedges in place will see revenues decline, this group should record sizeable hedging gains in Q4 and Q1 thanks to their strategies with fixed price swap, collar and put option derivatives. This is also significant because results from a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey, published in September, showed extended periods of low prices could impact drilling plans: Existing production is only dependent on a WTI price of $26-$45 to cover expenses depending on basin, according to the producers surveyed.New wells, however, only break even with a WTI price north of $60across the country. Evaluate Energy’s analysis reviewed hedging positions for every U.S. producer at the end of Q3 2025. E&P hedging data from around the world on a company-by-company basis is available to Evaluate Energy subscribers.Hedging overview – U.S. Producers in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026Civitas Resources, California Resources and Permian Resources were among the companies that have fixed swaps in place for both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.The companies involved in this collar/put option strategy, where revenues are protected by either a collar’s floor price or by exercising a put option, include Coterra Energy, Diamondback Energy and SM Energy.
